On June 10, Line, a messaging app popular in Asia, filed an F-1 with the US Securities and Exchange Commission in anticipation of a July IPO. But while the South Korean company hopes a public offering might help crack a saturated U.S. market, its efforts may prove to be too little, too late.
Already Too Many Messaging Apps?
In 2013, Line, already established as the most popular social network in Japan, debuted in the U.S. to fanfare and an assurance by US CEO Jeanie Han of stateside recognition. Three years later, the app has yet to make any significant inroads.
According to the latest Apptopia data, when compared to the most popular third-party messaging apps in the U.S. on iOS[1]—WhatsApp, Viber, WeChat, Facebook Messenger, Skype, SnapChat, and Kik—Line accounts for just 6.6 percent of total download market share, only besting fellow Asian import, WeChat (5.5 percent).
On Google Play, the results are nearly identical. Line earns just 6.2 percent of total market share in the US.
Slow Growth
Now, a small(er) share of the market isn’t necessarily indicative of a failure to resonate, so long as usage rates follow some discernable pattern of upward trajectory; i.e., growth. However, Apptopia’s data shows both download and usage rates of Line have virtually flat-lined in the US over the last several months on both mobile platforms. Just take a look at the following charts.
iOS Downloads (Last 90 Days)
Google Play Dowloads (Last 90 Days)
iOS Usage (Last 90 Days)
Google Play Usage (Last 90 Days)
Stickers as a competitive edge?
According to its SEC filing, Line believes messaging add-ons like Stickers—“a larger and more expressive version of emoticons”—can act as a key differentiator. And while the company’s claim of 389 million Stickers sent on average per day worldwide does speak to its popularity with current users, we doubt it’ll be enough to sway the uninitiated.
That’s because popular U.S. third-party messaging apps have added or are in process of adding more picture-based communication features. SnapChat introduced rotating lenses (Face Swap, etc) and emoji videos. Facebook Messenger permits users to send unique emojis and Gifs. WhatsApp’s “flurry” of new emojis has been well covered in the press.
And then there’s iMessage.
With a user base in the hundreds of millions, iMessage is one of the most used apps on iOS, and until the announcement at Apple’s 2016 World Wide Developers Conference on June 13, was closed to independent developers. But now, beginning with the release of iOS 10 in the fall, third-party developers can publish apps and add-ons that work directly within iMessage. As expected, there are already rumblings about a coming influx of stickers.
Bottom line
Even Line expresses doubts about its potential growth outside of Japan. In their SEC filing, they wrote, “We expect to continue to expand our global operations into new countries and to provide our offerings in additional languages. However, expansion of our operations abroad may be difficult due to the presence of established competitors in such markets.”
It certainly will be.
[1] Based on usage data
